Evidence companion · sources checked 13 July 2026

European Capital Drifts

Follow the capital from euro-area foreign portfolios to Mistral’s financing history and the valuation gap between Europe’s leading AI lab and its US peers. Observation dates are shown panel by panel.

European / Mistral record US record Other issuer / unknown
Where euro-area residents hold foreign portfolio equity · end-2025
Latest ECB issuer-country breakdown
≈€4.76tn in US-issued securities ≈€3.31tn in other non-euro-area issuers
At the end of 2025, US-resident issuers accounted for 59% of euro-area holdings of non-euro-area equity and investment-fund shares.
€8.07tn total. The displayed amounts are approximations derived from the ECB’s rounded share. The July 2026 release updated Q1 totals but did not publish a newer issuer-country split; the end-2025 geography remains the latest comparable breakdown.
Market backdrop · ten years through 31 May 2026 · EUR net returns
Common month-end snapshot
MSCI USA
14.6% / yr
MSCI Europe
8.8% / yr
Over that decade, MSCI USA compounded roughly six percentage points faster each year. That performance gap helps explain why US assets have been difficult for European capital to ignore.
The displayed pair follows Curvo's EUR reconstruction; May 2026 was its latest common month at the source check. Curvo's "last 10 years" is a rolling window, so these two figures are a 13 July 2026 observation; later views of the same page will show different values. Curvo return series and methodology · MSCI USA definition · MSCI Europe definition.
Mistral AI · four major priced fundraising milestones
Completed rounds through September 2025
SeedJun 2023
€105m
Led by Lightspeed. Public reporting named European and US investors. Sifted · 13 June 2023
Publicly disclosed stake
ASML ≈ 11%
Reported after the September 2025 Series C financing.
Not public
Full cap table
Current ownership percentages, voting rights, and control rights are not disclosed.
US venture firms led or co-led the first three headline rounds. In 2025, ASML supplied €1.3bn and became the only investor whose stake is quantified in the public sources cited here.
Mistral separately secured $830m in debt in March 2026 for 13,800 Nvidia GB300 GPUs near Paris. Debt is not plotted because it did not set an equity valuation. CNBC on ASML’s reported 11% stake.
Reported post-money valuation · named financing dates
Latest completed priced rounds · dates shown
Anthropic
May 2026
$965bn
OpenAI
Mar 2026
$852bn
Mistral
Sep 2025
~$14bn
At their latest completed priced rounds, the two US labs were valued roughly sixty to seventy times above Mistral. Reported June 2026 talks at a possible €20bn Mistral valuation had not closed at the source check. Anthropic · OpenAI · Mistral AI · reported Mistral talks.
Source conventions

Dates belong to each observation. Financing cards show completed transactions; reported talks are excluded until closed. Values are rounded for display, and amounts derived from rounded source shares are marked with ≈.